Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3506…04bd
crypto · 24 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$69 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$426 · open −$60
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$426
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage161d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 2 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$404
7 days+$442
14 days+$442
30 days+$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 10¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 24¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 68¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down on January 17? Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 7? Up 70¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down on January 7? Up 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Up 76¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 80¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET Up 82¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$156 +1519%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$137 +223%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $89 +$39 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? Feb 04 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down on January 17? Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jan 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12? Jan 12 $10 +$6 +61%
XRP Up or Down on January 7? Jan 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 7? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 6? Jan 06 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 6? Jan 06 $5 +$2 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 6? Jan 06 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? Jan 05 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 04 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 04 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 04 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8PM ET Jan 04 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% +$226
crypto 11% −$17
sports 1% +$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $199 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 2h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $198 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 46h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $89 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 128d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? BUY No 94¢ $10 129d
XRP Up or Down on January 17? BUY Down $1 147d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 151d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 151d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12? BUY Up 62¢ $10 152d
XRP Up or Down on January 7? BUY Up 59¢ $5 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 7? BUY Up 70¢ $10 158d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 6? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 6? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 158d
Ethereum Up or Down on January 6? SELL Up 97¢ $14 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 6? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 158d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 6? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 158d
Ethereum Up or Down on January 6? BUY Up 70¢ $10 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? SELL Up 100¢ $16 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? BUY Up 62¢ $10 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +473.8% +419.1% 100% 100% +143.3%
≤30d 4 +473.8% +419.1% 100% 100% +143.3%
≤90d 4 +473.8% +419.1% 100% 100% +143.3%
all 22 +61.2% +45.9% 59% 41% +97.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.9% 41% +97.9%
10% +31.9% 41% +79.0%
15% +19.2% 41% +61.7%
20% +7.5% 27% +45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.21 (match) · 44 history records