Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3504…d4f1 sports 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 493d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,882 (+5%) realized +$1,854 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%88W / 82L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$337est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$776
7 days+$326
14 days+$1,565
30 days+$1,751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$919
other 20% +$3,472
crypto 2% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +10.3% -0.2% 63% 58% -6.6%
≤30d 95 +14.9% +4.0% 62% 58% -1.6%
≤90d 112 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 53% -7.2%
all 170 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 49% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 49% -2.9%
10% -17.5% 48% -12.2%
15% -25.5% 48% -20.7%
20% -32.8% 46% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$155 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$1,766
Realized+$1,854
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses88 / 82
Est. fees paid−$337
Open positions8
Markets (closed)170 / 181
History coverage493d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 54¢ $310 $346 +$36 (+11%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $310 $308 −$2 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 57¢ $310 $297 −$13 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $220 $217 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $166 $214 +$48 (+29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $156 $153 −$3 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $174 $141 −$33 (-19%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $364 +$218 +60%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $325 −$320 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $315 −$310 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $324 +$247 +76%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $315 −$310 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $324 +$268 +83%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $325 −$320 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $324 −$320 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $218 +$331 +152%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $264 −$260 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $162 +$145 +90%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $325 +$3 +1%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $107 −$105 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $324 +$201 +62%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $263 +$177 +67%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $264 −$260 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $263 −$260 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $324 −$320 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $275 −$270 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $324 −$320 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $263 +$193 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $264 +$236 +90%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $253 +$185 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $264 +$227 +86%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $264 −$264 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $314 +$249 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $365 −$360 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$127 +125%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoir Jun 21 $244 +$264 +108%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $253 +$201 +79%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $253 +$11 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $304 +$196 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $314 +$199 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $314 +$212 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $315 −$310 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $315 −$310 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $314 −$310 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $223 +$184 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$168 +83%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $324 +$237 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $233 −$230 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $224 −$220 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $314 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $314 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $315 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $94 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $224 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $51 20h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $314 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $264 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $274 27h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $315 27h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $324 27h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $325 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $324 45h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $324 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $264 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 59¢ $324 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Qatar 53¢ $328 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $61 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $218 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $107 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 51¢ $325 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $160 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $264 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $263 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $324 3d
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $263 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,765.97 · official $1,766.00 (match) · 382 history records