Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
35 0x3504…4ba8 politics 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,544 (-1%) realized −$1,545 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%15W / 75L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,162per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$14
14 days−$26
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$62
other 41% −$44
sports 6% −$1,482
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -5.9% -14.9% 11% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 89 +5.5% -4.5% 17% 11% -10.9%
all 90 +5.5% -4.6% 17% 11% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 11% -10.9%
10% -13.7% 11% -19.4%
15% -22.0% 10% -27.2%
20% -29.7% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,712) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$25 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$1,545
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses15 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage92d
Avg bet$1,162
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $251 $252 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,712 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,525 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $3,238 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,722 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,784 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,778 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,057 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,160 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,071 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,880 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,022 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,969 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $59 +$38 +65%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,261 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $746 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,845 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $235 +$1 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $348 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $314 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $318 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,957 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,812 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $73 −$73 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 25 $57 +$18 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $33 +$15 +46%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 19 $49 +$40 +83%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 May 08 $1,577 −$1,476 -94%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5 May 05 $196 −$9 -5%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $4,100 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $2,518 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $2,626 −$3 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $2,832 −$4 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $1,278 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $1,287 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $2,605 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $1,383 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $371 5m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $372 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $292 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $293 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $521 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $522 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $637 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $638 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $611 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $612 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $488 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $489 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $583 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $583 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $491 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $492 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $521 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $522 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $251 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $673 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $675 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $704 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $705 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $597 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $598 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $865 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $866 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $789 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $790 14d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $757 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.05 · official $252.05 (match) · 286 history records