Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
34 0x34fa…9a26 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$22
politics 29% −$14
sports 12% +$90
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 125 +4.7% -5.3% 13% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 6% -9.4%
10% -14.3% 6% -18.1%
15% -22.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -30.2% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×10.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage129d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 06 $1,156 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $321 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $344 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $323 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $254 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $288 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $363 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $776 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $290 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,257 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $346 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 18 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 17 $348 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $307 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $279 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $313 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $340 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $198 $0 -0%
Will Danny Willett win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $283 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $317 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $291 35d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $248 35d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $248 44d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $276 46d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $276 46d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $311 47d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $311 48d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $321 48d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $321 48d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $268 48d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $268 48d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $323 48d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $323 48d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 48d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 49d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $301 49d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $301 49d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 50d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 50d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $300 50d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $300 50d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $344 51d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $344 51d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $276 51d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $276 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 388 history records