Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
34 0x34f9…0540 world 322 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,930 (+2%) realized +$1,909 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate39%125W / 196L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$1,208
14 days−$1,838
30 days−$739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$2,223
other 13% −$496
politics 10% −$589
crypto 7% +$411
sports 1% +$8
economics 1% +$64
tech 1% −$153
finance 0% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.4% -18.0% 39% 28% -18.1%
≤30d 56 +10.9% +0.3% 29% 20% -13.9%
≤90d 177 +16.4% +5.3% 46% 29% -7.0%
all 321 -1.7% -11.0% 39% 27% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 27% -8.2%
10% -19.6% 20% -17.0%
15% -27.3% 14% -25.0%
20% -34.5% 12% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$39 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$1,909
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses125 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)321 / 322
History coverage465d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 52¢ 63¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 20 $200 −$79 -39%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $2,932 −$1,221 -42%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $485 −$121 -25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $1,805 +$255 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$16 -41%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $800 +$145 +18%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $4,376 −$106 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $130 +$22 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $658 +$140 +21%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $109 +$104 +96%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 14 $260 −$210 -81%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $35 −$10 -28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $400 −$72 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Jun 13 $218 −$49 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $155 −$20 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $509 −$199 -39%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 08 $103 −$53 -51%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $234 −$86 -37%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 08 $100 −$47 -47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $999 −$34 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 07 $123 −$9 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -79%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $150 −$82 -55%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $31 −$16 -53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $160 −$45 -28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -96%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 04 $800 −$9 -1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2,524 −$213 -8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,636 +$560 +34%
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 03 $16 −$7 -45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $250 +$23 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $300 +$40 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $12 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $701 +$27 +4%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? May 31 $178 +$51 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $421 −$21 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $1,406 +$757 +54%
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 29 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $439 −$35 -8%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? May 28 $72 −$47 -65%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 27 $96 −$30 -32%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? May 27 $200 −$63 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $109 −$10 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $25 −$19 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $24 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $47 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $100 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $315 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $285 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $600 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 47¢ $70 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 47¢ $27 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 47¢ $45 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 47¢ $26 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 51¢ $182 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $5 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $4 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $2 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $20 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 32¢ $0 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 31¢ $118 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 30¢ $116 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 28¢ $56 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 55¢ $6 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $8 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 42¢ $123 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.36 · official $121.19 (match) · 2345 history records