Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
34 0x34f7…5f55 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$424 (-7%) realized −$419 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$501
14 days−$669
30 days−$669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$169
crypto 9% −$528
world 9% −$527
sports 5% +$549
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.4% -22.6% 62% 62% -25.5%
≤30d 13 +2.8% -7.0% 62% 54% -21.3%
≤90d 13 +2.8% -7.0% 62% 54% -21.3%
all 13 +2.8% -7.0% 62% 54% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 54% -21.3%
10% -15.9% 38% -28.8%
15% -24.0% 31% -35.7%
20% -31.4% 23% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$421 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$695
Realized−$419
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage13d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $422 −$422 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $210 +$123 +58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $211 +$134 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $314 +$48 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $524 +$180 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $524 −$524 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $522 +$66 +13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $527 −$527 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $525 +$221 +42%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $212 +$655 +309%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $528 −$528 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $521 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $522 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $211 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $211 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $210 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $422 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $314 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $524 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $522 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $524 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $525 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $527 11d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $106 11d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $528 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $521 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $695.09 · official $695.09 (match) · 29 history records