Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34f7…879a world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$7
other 32% $0
politics 7% $0
crypto 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.5% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 17 +114.6% +94.2% 18% 6% -10.8%
≤90d 17 +114.6% +94.2% 18% 6% -10.8%
all 43 +45.3% +31.4% 35% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.4% 2% -10.2%
10% +18.9% 2% -18.8%
15% +7.4% 2% -26.7%
20% -3.2% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +88% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage473d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $41 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $59 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $1 $0 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $81 −$4 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $44 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 22 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 18 $13 $0 -1%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tom Kim win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $2 $0 -6%
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $14 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 18? Mar 18 $14 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $17 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $17 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $42 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $42 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $38 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $38 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $28 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $10 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $5 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $14 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records