Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
34 0x34f6…5d76 weather 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$128 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate89%51W / 6L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$8
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% +$15
politics 8% −$67
other 3% −$6
world 1% +$5
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -1.5% -10.9% 87% 41% -9.8%
≤30d 57 +1.2% -8.4% 89% 47% -7.5%
≤90d 57 +1.2% -8.4% 89% 47% -7.5%
all 57 +1.2% -8.4% 89% 47% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 47% -7.5%
10% -17.2% 7% -16.4%
15% -25.2% 2% -24.5%
20% -32.5% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$51 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses51 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)57 / 65
History coverage9d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 70¢ 56¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Yes 91¢ 72¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Yes 86¢ 52¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Yes 93¢ 30¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 82¢ 16¢ $75 $14 −$61 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $60 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$14 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$2 +6%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 16 $50 +$4 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$19 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $71 +$13 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 −$35 -70%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$8 +8%
Will Samuel L. Jackson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Steve Carell attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $72 +$13 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $34 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $107 +$18 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$10 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $71 +$11 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 10? Jun 11 $71 +$14 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $80 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$8 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $60 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $51 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $71 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 92¢ $99 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $72 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.78 · official $347.78 (match) · 124 history records