Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34f4…16bd crypto 917 markets active 6d ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,137 (-4%) realized −$1,137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%287W / 705L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day116.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$2,264
other 7% +$372
tech 1% −$265
finance 1% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -77.7% -79.8% 8% 8% -76.2%
≤30d 672 -22.0% -29.4% 29% 28% -31.6%
≤90d 992 -17.7% -25.5% 29% 28% -27.1%
all 992 -17.7% -25.5% 29% 28% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 28% -27.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 27% -34.1%
15% -39.2% 26% -40.5%
20% -45.1% 24% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$26 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses287 / 705
Open positions0
Markets (closed)992 / 917
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day116.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 992 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$20 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $9 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $9 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 4¢ $87 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records