Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34f4…29bd crypto 1136 markets active 4d ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,001 (+8%) realized +$2,001 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate38%584W / 949L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day152.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 643 -60.1% -63.9% 20% 8% -22.3%
≤30d 1533 -24.2% -31.4% 38% 17% -13.0%
≤90d 1533 -24.2% -31.4% 38% 17% -13.0%
all 1533 -24.2% -31.4% 38% 17% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.4% 17% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -38.0% 11% -21.3%
15% -44.0% 7% -28.9%
20% -49.5% 5% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,001
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses584 / 949
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1533 / 1136
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day152.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1533 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records