Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x34f3…2364
crypto · 271 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$95 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$91 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses56 / 198
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)254 / 271
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 17 History 254 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 40¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Yes 30¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 06 $1 +$2 +158%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 +$6 +197%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Hughes vs. Vergiev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Hickey vs. Tompkins (Middleweight, Main) Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2 May 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 01 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -89%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 01 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$2 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 10 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$51
other 24% −$24
culture 10% −$18
world 9% −$2
sports 6% +$5
finance 2% −$4
politics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 38m
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 39m
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 41m
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 42m
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 13h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 26h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 26h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $1 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 26h
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 45h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 2d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 7¢ $1 5d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6d
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -53.1% -57.6% 17% 17% -32.7%
≤30d 28 -38.1% -44.0% 21% 21% -20.4%
≤90d 219 -39.1% -44.9% 20% 18% -38.3%
all 254 -36.7% -42.8% 22% 19% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.8% 19% -36.6%
10% -48.2% 16% -42.7%
15% -53.2% 15% -48.2%
20% -57.8% 14% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.68 · official $16.76 (match) · 523 history records