Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x34f1…8ff4 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 649d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$261 (+1%) realized +$675 · open −$414
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$1,282per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$319
7 days+$319
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$400
sports 39% +$60
other 9% −$964
politics 8% +$12
world 5% +$604
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.2% -2.1% 50% 50% +18.7%
≤30d 4 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 50% -11.6%
≤90d 5 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 40% -9.7%
all 15 -25.2% -32.3% 53% 27% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 27% -7.0%
10% -38.8% 20% -15.9%
15% -44.7% 13% -24.1%
20% -50.1% 7% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$212 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$873
Realized+$675
Unrealized−$414
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage649d
Avg bet$1,282
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 73¢ 50¢ $1,287 $873 −$414 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $24 −$4 -16%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $999 +$323 +32%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $997 −$997 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026- Jun 22 $1,264 +$604 +48%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 03 $2,000 +$62 +3%
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa Feb 26 $320 −$320 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $2,354 +$340 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 15 $200 −$62 -31%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs USA (Game 1) Feb 15 $4,158 −$40 -1%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 31 $5,001 +$107 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jan 20 $4,997 +$303 +6%
Football.Fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 17 $478 +$37 +8%
Blonde Broker vs Ashley Sep 18 $422 +$232 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Jap BUY $22 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes $20 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $1,298 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes $24 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $999 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY $50 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 13¢ $821 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 51¢ $997 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Bo BUY 65¢ $171 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026- BUY 67¢ $1,264 8d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 SELL Yes 86¢ $2,062 57d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 80¢ $1,000 75d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 90¢ $500 76d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 84¢ $500 76d
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa BUY West Indies 21¢ $320 123d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa SELL South Africa 91¢ $840 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa BUY South Africa 75¢ $692 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa SELL South Africa 63¢ $692 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa BUY South Africa 71¢ $506 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa BUY South Africa 62¢ $240 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa SELL South Africa 60¢ $510 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa BUY South Africa 41¢ $267 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa BUY South Africa 40¢ $80 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa SELL South Africa 40¢ $81 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa BUY South Africa 34¢ $68 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa SELL South Africa 32¢ $571 127d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa BUY South Africa 28¢ $500 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $10 134d
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) SELL Pakistan 20¢ $138 134d
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) BUY Pakistan 29¢ $200 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.84 · official $893.81 · 49 history records