Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34ee…477f crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%44W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$7
crypto 11% +$4
other 4% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 57 -1.6% -11.0% 77% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses44 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage549d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? Apr 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 03 $69 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $15 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 03 $30 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $14 before June? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 17 $64 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Apr 11 $65 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $5,880 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $4250 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $72 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $38 61d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will BNB dip to $300 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 93d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $28 149d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 150d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 181d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $30 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $41 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $69 212d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $11 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $15 241d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $52 243d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $45 273d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $21 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? BUY No 100¢ $58 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $54 334d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 364d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $7 395d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $14 before June? BUY No 100¢ $4 395d
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? BUY No 99¢ $10 423d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? BUY No 99¢ $11 424d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? BUY No 99¢ $3 425d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.66 · official $78.66 (match) · 118 history records