Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34ea…3955 other 387 markets active 0h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized +$25 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%189W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$174
14 days+$176
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$12
sports 16% −$224
world 11% +$73
crypto 4% +$88
economics 3% −$25
politics 3% +$5
tech 1% +$9
culture 0% +$8
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 53% -0.6%
≤30d 82 +15.7% +4.6% 60% 54% +1.5%
≤90d 142 +9.1% -1.3% 56% 42% -11.2%
all 345 +9.6% -0.9% 55% 40% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 40% -9.7%
10% -10.4% 33% -18.3%
15% -19.0% 28% -26.2%
20% -27.0% 24% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses189 / 156
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions41
Markets (closed)345 / 387
History coverage406d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $111 $77 −$35 (-31%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 89¢ 90¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? No 85¢ 84¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 Yes 22¢ 20¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $35 $30 −$4 (-13%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-8%)
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-13%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No 49¢ 74¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 80¢ 81¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 44¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+89%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 37¢ 36¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 97¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 +$11 +114%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $35 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $35 +$5 +13%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 +$3 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 +$12 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$11 +113%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $8 +$12 +144%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$15 +317%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $44 +$5 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$11 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $13 +$7 +57%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 +$8 +70%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$59 +146%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $36 +$4 +11%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $101 +$32 +31%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $65 +$35 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $23 +$77 +335%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $44 +$56 +127%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $171 +$29 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $49 +$51 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +52%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 85¢ $34 15m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 17m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $12 18m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $10 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $5 45m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $0 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $8 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 22h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $8 26h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $10 26h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 41¢ $8 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $5 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $3 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $3 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 28h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $9 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $6 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $9 29h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 88¢ $35 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.17 · official $466.17 (match) · 2034 history records