Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x34e9…e6c7
other · 189 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$891 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$920 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$198
Realized−$920
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses81 / 107
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage230d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 1 History 188 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Zalgiris Kaunas 32¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Lakers 44¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $95 +$108 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$18 +44%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $48 −$47 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Apr 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $98 −$97 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $50 +$48 +97%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $83 −$83 -100%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) Apr 24 $33 +$50 +151%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Apr 23 $24 +$9 +38%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $62 −$38 -61%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $205 +$116 +57%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $63 +$80 +126%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $139 +$125 +90%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 +$89 +89%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $60 +$77 +128%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $76 −$73 -97%
Partizan vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Apr 11 $50 +$50 +100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $107 +$92 +86%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $50 +$57 +114%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. BC Dubai Apr 07 $177 −$177 -100%
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Partizan Apr 02 $14 +$14 +100%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Barcelona Apr 02 $161 +$99 +62%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy end in a draw? Mar 31 $30 +$36 +120%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $30 −$9 -31%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-20.5) Mar 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $43 +$50 +117%
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Mar 27 $31 +$83 +266%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $24 −$13 -53%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. FC Bayern Munchen Mar 24 $56 +$32 +57%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $50 +$46 +92%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $50 −$30 -59%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $30 +$30 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 66% −$630
sports 33% −$309
world 1% −$80
culture 0% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $95 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 2d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $48 46d
Fenerbahce vs. Zalgiris Kaunas BUY Zalgiris Kaunas 32¢ $102 46d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 47d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 44¢ $98 48d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 48d
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) BUY Chelsea FC 26¢ $30 48d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 48d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) BUY Manchester City FC 53¢ $83 49d
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) SELL RB Leipzig 100¢ $83 50d
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) BUY RB Leipzig 39¢ $33 50d
Will Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 51d
Will Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $24 51d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 51d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 45¢ $62 51d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $321 52d
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $143 52d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $205 52d
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $63 52d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? SELL Yes 92¢ $265 53d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $59 53d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $80 53d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 54d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 55d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 56d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 50% +9.9%
≤30d 4 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 50% +9.9%
≤90d 62 -12.6% -21.0% 40% 40% -11.7%
all 188 -2.2% -11.5% 43% 43% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 43% -17.3%
10% -20.0% 43% -25.2%
15% -27.7% 43% -32.4%
20% -34.8% 37% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.08 · official $198.08 (match) · 423 history records