Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x34e6…71cc other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate48%40W / 44L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$20
14 days+$22
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$29
other 28% −$13
politics 23% −$4
sports 13% +$8
finance 1% −$23
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 75% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 17 +1.2% -8.4% 53% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 34 +9.1% -1.3% 44% 3% -9.5%
all 84 +2.3% -7.5% 48% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 1% -9.5%
10% -16.3% 1% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 1% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage469d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $336 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $184 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $181 +$3 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $170 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $550 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $211 +$16 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $180 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $172 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $198 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $171 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $167 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $190 +$4 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $166 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $165 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $113 +$10 +9%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $119 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $150 +$1 +1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $68 −$5 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $37 −$4 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $59 −$23 -40%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $359 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $89 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $148 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $972 +$7 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $1,073 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,073 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $975 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $8 −$2 -32%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2025 BMW Championship? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $19 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $81 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $52 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $152 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $23 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $70 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $184 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $23 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $161 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $107 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $77 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $184 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $154 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $181 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $122 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $143 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $16 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records