Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x34e6…adf8 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$38 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 6 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 6 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 6 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Germany 98¢ 94¢ $348 $334 −$14 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 29 $344 +$4 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 29 $339 +$5 +2%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 27 $336 +$3 +1%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 27 $331 +$5 +1%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 26 $328 +$3 +1%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 26 $324 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $348 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Brazil 99¢ $344 12h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $339 46h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $336 2d
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY Belgium 99¢ $331 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY France 99¢ $328 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $324 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.66 · official $333.31 (match) · 13 history records