Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:55:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34e1…8e4d other 229 markets active 3h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$29
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$36
sports 21% −$19
politics 9% −$7
culture 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$4
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 229 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage127d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $571 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $246 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $783 −$3 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $800 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $565 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $446 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $330 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $159 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $523 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 4h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 9h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 10h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 15h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 15h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 18h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 20h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 22h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 23h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 24h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 26h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 27h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 29h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 31h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 32h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 33h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 34h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 37h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 40h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 41h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 45h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 46h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1280 history records