Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x34de…6527
sports · 90 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$784 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$778 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$575
Realized−$778
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses29 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage217d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$518
7 days−$518
14 days−$518
30 days−$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $581 $575 −$6 (-1%)
North Alabama Lions vs. Queens (NC) Royals North Alabama Lions 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Maryland Terrapins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Maryland Terrapins 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Pelicans Pelicans 7¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Pacers Bulls 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Radford Highlanders vs. Winthrop Eagles Radford Highlanders 29¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Faker (Lee Sang-hyeok) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Furman Paladins vs. The Citadel Bulldogs Furman Paladins 62¢ 0¢ $322 $0 −$322 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-28? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Movistar KOI 50¢ 0¢ $177 $0 −$177 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Hornets 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Will Bdd (Gwak Bo-seong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Samford Bulldogs vs. Wofford Terriers Samford Bulldogs 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 0¢ $126 $0 −$126 (-100%)
Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Navy Midshipmen Holy Cross Crusaders 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Thunder Thunder 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Nets Nets 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-01-21? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - LCP Regular Season DetonatioN FocusMe 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Envy vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Team Envy 56¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Will Oner (Mun Hyeon-jun) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$78 -74%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $134 +$60 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$16 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $208 −$93 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $48 −$12 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $96 +$30 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $207 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $335 −$24 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$23 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $88 −$86 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $193 −$96 -50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $128 −$126 -98%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - LCP R Feb 07 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Feb 06 $164 +$297 +182%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 31 $177 −$177 -100%
Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jan 31 $104 +$72 +69%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $84 +$21 +25%
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. UC Irvine Anteaters Jan 30 $68 +$16 +24%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 29 $62 +$16 +26%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Central Arkansas Bears vs. Queens (NC) Royals Jan 29 $19 +$34 +177%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $503 −$75 -15%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $167 +$111 +66%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $5 +$2 +40%
Will SK Slavia Praha win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $48 −$46 -95%
Will FC København win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $30 −$15 -51%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Jan 26 $134 −$134 -100%
Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5 Jan 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jan 24 $104 −$20 -19%
Celtics vs. Nets Jan 24 $30 −$9 -32%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Play Jan 24 $84 +$30 +36%
Kings vs. Cavaliers Jan 24 $99 +$11 +12%
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs Jan 24 $5 +$11 +214%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines Jan 24 $18 −$2 -10%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jan 23 $346 −$346 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 40% −$1,017
other 33% +$385
crypto 20% −$172
politics 7% +$19
world 0% −$6
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $591 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $19 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $9 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 47m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $46 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $117 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $22 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $15 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $20 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -41.8% -47.3% 32% 32% -33.1%
≤30d 22 -41.8% -47.3% 32% 32% -33.1%
≤90d 22 -41.8% -47.3% 32% 32% -33.1%
all 89 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 31% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 31% -19.6%
10% -30.8% 24% -27.3%
15% -37.5% 18% -34.3%
20% -43.6% 15% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.11 · official $575.11 (match) · 228 history records