Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x34de…ff59 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$663 (+11%) realized +$662 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$334
7 days−$104
14 days+$915
30 days+$915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$445
sports 50% +$472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 46% -12.6%
≤30d 33 +2.9% -6.9% 48% 48% +6.0%
≤90d 33 +2.9% -6.9% 48% 48% +6.0%
all 33 +2.9% -6.9% 48% 48% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 48% +6.0%
10% -15.8% 48% -4.2%
15% -23.9% 48% -13.4%
20% -31.4% 42% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$93 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$662
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage9d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $125 +$88 +70%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $51 +$44 +86%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $35 −$8 -24%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 Jun 26 $123 +$157 +127%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $305 −$34 -11%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 −$1 -3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$24 +47%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $81 +$73 +90%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $61 +$79 +129%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 −$200 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $81 −$80 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$51 -50%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $152 +$136 +90%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$63 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $253 +$164 +65%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$60 +84%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $223 +$274 +122%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $304 +$251 +82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $610 +$667 +109%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,008 +$362 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $256 −$256 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $94 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 47¢ $138 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 62¢ $50 3h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL 29¢ $26 3h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 37¢ $35 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 58¢ $125 3h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 SELL 99¢ $280 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $74 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 43¢ $123 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $196 23h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia BUY 58¢ $100 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 24h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $54 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 23¢ $30 26h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 28¢ $30 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 57¢ $34 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY 61¢ $177 27h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 67¢ $50 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $61 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $81 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $81 3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.47 · official $187.39 · 77 history records