Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34de…0e2b weather 64 markets active 1d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-8%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate51%32W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -9.4% -18.1% 54% 35% -17.5%
≤30d 63 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 35% -19.0%
≤90d 63 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 35% -19.0%
all 63 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 35% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 35% -19.0%
10% -27.2% 13% -26.7%
15% -34.2% 3% -33.8%
20% -40.7% 2% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses32 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL No 81¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? SELL No 86¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 32¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 47¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? SELL No 81¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 4¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? SELL No 81¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 76¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 34¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 82¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL No 69¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records