Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
34 0x34d6…902b crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$247 (-2%) realized −$234 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate70%74W / 31L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$913
7 days+$257
14 days+$257
30 days+$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$573
other 22% +$234
crypto 7% +$46
world 4% −$186
tech 2% −$7
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 33% +0.3%
≤30d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 33% +0.3%
≤90d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 33% +0.3%
all 105 -5.8% -14.7% 70% 18% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 18% -4.9%
10% -22.9% 13% -14.0%
15% -30.3% 10% -22.3%
20% -37.2% 7% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$46 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$787
Realized−$234
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses74 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)105 / 109
History coverage189d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $858 +$913 +106%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $801 +$44 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $702 −$700 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 03 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 01 $4 −$4 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $40 −$7 -18%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 25 $5 −$1 -29%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 25 $5 −$2 -46%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 25 $5 −$4 -78%
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia Feb 19 $1,586 +$157 +10%
Men's Round of 16 - Sweden vs. Latvia Feb 17 $1,444 +$141 +10%
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany Feb 16 $1,300 +$143 +11%
Men's Group C - USA vs. Denmark Feb 14 $1,639 +$55 +3%
Men's Group B - Sweden vs. Slovakia Feb 14 $42 +$7 +18%
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Latvia Feb 14 $402 −$402 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 13 $60 −$18 -30%
Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland Feb 13 $1,412 +$179 +13%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 13 $60 +$4 +7%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 13 $40 −$14 -35%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 13 $60 −$25 -41%
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada Feb 12 $798 +$130 +16%
Oilers vs. Flames Feb 05 $100 −$2 -2%
Wild vs. Predators Feb 05 $100 +$45 +45%
Canadiens vs. Jets Feb 05 $100 +$38 +38%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Feb 05 $100 −$1 -1%
Bruins vs. Panthers Feb 05 $100 +$36 +36%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 02 $100 −$5 -5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 20 $80 −$23 -29%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $40 +$16 +40%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 12 $60 −$26 -43%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jan 04 $14 +$8 +54%
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Jan 04 $25 +$14 +56%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Dec 31 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Dec 18 $244 +$81 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $858 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $702 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $801 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $16 106d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 107d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 50¢ $33 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 61¢ $40 108d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 112d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? SELL Yes $3 112d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? SELL Yes $1 112d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 115d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 115d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY Yes $5 115d
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia BUY Canada 91¢ $1,586 119d
Men's Round of 16 - Sweden vs. Latvia SELL Sweden 100¢ $1,586 119d
Men's Round of 16 - Sweden vs. Latvia BUY Sweden 91¢ $1,444 119d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany SELL USA 100¢ $1,444 121d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany BUY USA 90¢ $340 122d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany BUY USA 90¢ $78 122d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany BUY USA 90¢ $384 122d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany BUY USA 90¢ $96 122d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany BUY USA 90¢ $338 122d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany BUY USA 90¢ $15 122d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany BUY USA 90¢ $15 122d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Germany BUY USA 90¢ $26 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.21 · official $787.21 (match) · 435 history records