Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
34 0x34d5…a977 sports 354 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$186 (-1%) realized −$185 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%157W / 197L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$131
14 days+$153
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$162
politics 20% −$4
other 9% +$135
weather 8% +$54
world 4% −$282
finance 2% −$27
culture 1% −$21
economics 0% +$14
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +112.8% +92.5% 74% 47% -1.2%
≤30d 72 +52.9% +38.3% 47% 35% -7.2%
≤90d 175 +17.1% +6.0% 37% 30% -12.6%
all 354 +8.5% -1.8% 44% 35% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 35% -10.6%
10% -11.2% 26% -19.1%
15% -19.8% 20% -26.9%
20% -27.7% 16% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses157 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions3
Markets (closed)354 / 354
History coverage239d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wild Horse Nine get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+106%)
Will Wuthering Heights get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will The Bride! get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $324 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $109 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$13 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $84 +$55 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$31 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $92 +$55 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 +$6 +1866%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 +$6 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $89 +$53 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $234 −$137 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $170 +$30 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $64 +$21 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +8%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $5,011 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -18%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $22 −$16 -74%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $19 +$31 +158%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $19 −$11 -55%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $12 +$14 +113%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $101 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 1? May 31 $6 −$6 -95%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $33 +$3 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $1 $0 -68%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $44 +$29 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $26 +$12 +46%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -84%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $18 −$9 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$4 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $0 $0 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 82¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 75¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 90¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 55¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $38 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 61¢ $45 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $27 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $31 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 85¢ $42 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 85¢ $42 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $52 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $14 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $55 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 65¢ $13 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $29 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 67¢ $52 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $17 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.77 · official $3.75 (match) · 1604 history records