Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34d5…e0c1 sports 706 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,067 (+2%) realized +$2,067 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%379W / 429L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$1,516est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,454
other 1% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -81.9% -83.6% 10% 10% -36.1%
≤30d 179 -57.8% -61.8% 19% 18% -31.8%
≤90d 654 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 45% -13.1%
all 808 -8.5% -17.2% 47% 46% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 46% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 42% -21.1%
15% -32.4% 36% -28.7%
20% -39.0% 28% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$121 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,067
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses379 / 429
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,516
Open positions0
Markets (closed)808 / 706
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$173
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 808 Trades
no open positions (345 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 19 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $72 −$72 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Real Sociedad vs. Villarreal end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs GIANTX (BO1) Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Jun 19 $186 −$198 -106%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-11-27? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -102%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-11-30? Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-27? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1) Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. PSV end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-11-06? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-30? Jun 19 $56 −$59 -106%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Jun 19 $153 −$155 -101%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2025-11-29? Jun 19 $38 −$51 -134%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-23? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29? Jun 19 $53 −$54 -101%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX (BO1) Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO1) Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO1) Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Jun 19 $60 −$64 -107%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$33 -110%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-11-27? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $151 −$151 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Jun 19 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Jun 19 $112 −$296 -265%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 19 $140 −$143 -102%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Hamburger SV vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner Jun 19 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2,098 26m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $272 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $624 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $98 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 54¢ $1,620 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $250 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $96 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 80¢ $200 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $227 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $73 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 57¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 57¢ $160 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 57¢ $311 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 57¢ $58 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 57¢ $36 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $53 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records