Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34d5…b900 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-5%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%24W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$116
14 days−$111
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$114
sports 13% +$33
world 8% +$11
economics 5% +$6
crypto 5% −$5
tech 4% +$9
politics 4% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 80% 40% -33.3%
≤30d 9 +9.5% -1.0% 89% 56% -21.1%
≤90d 35 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 54% -14.4%
all 35 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 54% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 54% -14.4%
10% -15.0% 31% -22.6%
15% -23.2% 23% -30.0%
20% -30.7% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses24 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage90d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $180 −$142 -79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $170 +$12 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 +$11 +37%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 30 $41 +$9 +22%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? May 01 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $5 +$2 +32%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria Apr 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 19 $10 −$4 -45%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $5 +$7 +137%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $50 +$8 +15%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $21 +$4 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $31 +$3 +10%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 29? Mar 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +13%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $1 +$3 +300%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 22 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 91¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $38 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $180 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 8d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte BUY Yes 89¢ $50 25d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? BUY No 82¢ $16 33d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? BUY No 82¢ $7 33d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? BUY No 82¢ $14 33d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? BUY No 82¢ $5 33d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 44d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 52d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 70¢ $25 52d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? BUY No 83¢ $30 60d
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 85¢ $30 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 63d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 67d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 71d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 72d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 72d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $11 76d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 70¢ $5 76d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 87¢ $50 78d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria BUY No 75¢ $5 81d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records