Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
34 0x34cf…3c59 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,001 (+12%) realized +$1,024 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%38W / 31L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$242
7 days+$668
14 days+$1,085
30 days+$1,133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,085
other 18% −$151
crypto 3% +$141
world 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +32.8% +20.2% 76% 76% +32.4%
≤30d 69 +16.7% +5.6% 55% 55% +9.5%
≤90d 69 +16.7% +5.6% 55% 55% +9.5%
all 69 +16.7% +5.6% 55% 55% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 55% +9.5%
10% -4.5% 52% -1.0%
15% -13.7% 48% -10.5%
20% -22.2% 45% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$62 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$1,024
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses38 / 31
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 75
History coverage28d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $110 $87 −$23 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $102 +$19 +19%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $51 +$34 +66%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $102 +$31 +30%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $217 +$209 +96%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $102 +$42 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $102 +$143 +140%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $101 +$58 +58%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $102 +$94 +92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $134 +$135 +101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $61 +$39 +64%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $51 +$66 +129%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$35 +69%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $61 −$39 -64%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $61 +$36 +59%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$41 +80%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $67 +$240 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $71 +$69 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 15 $71 −$4 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $56 +$39 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $51 −$45 -88%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$142 +139%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $608 −$274 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $39 +$36 +92%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$60 -59%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $102 −$23 -22%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $102 +$31 +30%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $304 +$161 +53%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $151 +$17 +11%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $203 +$153 +75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$67 +66%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $102 −$77 -76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $102 −$66 -64%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $280 +$48 +17%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $102 +$32 +31%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $203 +$122 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $37 +$43 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $51 +$46 +90%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $102 +$177 +174%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $305 −$67 -22%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $102 −$79 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 55¢ $121 41m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 45¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $199 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 63¢ $202 33h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 65¢ $85 45h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 38¢ $51 45h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 35¢ $51 45h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 55¢ $132 45h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $102 46h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 46h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $197 46h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $116 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Cleveland Guardians 61¢ $144 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 91¢ $245 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Toronto Blue Jays 92¢ $160 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ $101 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 88¢ $154 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $101 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 37¢ $102 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $152 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 75¢ $196 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $102 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 95¢ $100 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $101 6d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 80¢ $117 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.06 · official $283.66 · 186 history records