Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34ce…0b77 other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-37%) realized −$78 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$51
other 23% −$30
sports 6% −$20
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -45.4% -50.6% 30% 30% -53.1%
≤30d 10 -45.4% -50.6% 30% 30% -53.1%
≤90d 10 -45.4% -50.6% 30% 30% -53.1%
all 10 -45.4% -50.6% 30% 30% -53.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.6% 30% -53.1%
10% -55.3% 30% -57.6%
15% -59.7% 30% -61.7%
20% -63.6% 20% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)10 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 59¢ 38¢ $155 $98 −$57 (-37%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 33¢ 35¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$8 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +84%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 5h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 5h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 5h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 36h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 37h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 39h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $139 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $5 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.84 · official $161.89 (match) · 33 history records