trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel strikes Iran by October 31? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $720 | $0 | −$720 (-100%) |
| Israel strikes Iran by September 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $299 | $0 | −$299 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel strikes Iran by September 30? | Sep 21 | $299 | −$299 | -100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by October 31? | Sep 21 | $720 | −$720 | -100% |
| US military action against Iran by Saturday? | Jun 21 | $250 | +$139 | +56% |
| US military action against Iran by Sunday? | Jun 21 | $500 | +$546 | +109% |
| US military action against Iran by Friday? | Jun 21 | $720 | −$720 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Jun 21 | $1,333 | −$384 | -29% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | Jun 21 | $1,000 | −$771 | -77% |
| US military action against Iran before July? | Jun 20 | $31,873 | +$6,277 | +20% |
| US military action against Iran before August? | Jun 20 | $3,499 | +$573 | +16% |
| Israel military action against Iran by Friday? | Jun 13 | $8,890 | +$43,288 | +487% |
| Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July? | Jun 13 | $4 | +$2 | +46% |
| Israel strikes Iranian oil in June? | Jun 13 | $134 | +$275 | +205% |
| Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? | Jun 13 | $9,903 | +$5,212 | +53% |
| Israel military action against Iran before July? | Jun 13 | $9,782 | +$4,707 | +48% |
| Israel military action against Iran in April? | Apr 05 | $1,710 | −$415 | -24% |
| US military action against Iran in April? | Apr 05 | $5,275 | −$392 | -7% |
| Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? | Nov 11 | $3,032 | −$1,405 | -46% |
| Iran strike on Israel before December? | Nov 07 | $5,534 | −$1,552 | -28% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December? | Oct 29 | $135 | +$22 | +16% |
| Israel military response against Iran by Friday? | Oct 26 | $1,203 | +$7,801 | +648% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 20 | +59.6% | +44.4% | 55% | 55% | +56.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +44.4% | 55% | +56.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +30.6% | 40% | +41.1% |
| 15% | +18.0% | 40% | +27.5% |
| 20% | +6.4% | 30% | +15.0% |