Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34cb…1137 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$2
politics 19% +$1
other 13% −$1
finance 5% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% −$3
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -1.8% -11.1% 23% 8% -10.8%
≤90d 17 -6.9% -15.7% 29% 6% -10.4%
all 43 -3.9% -13.0% 44% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -10.3%
10% -21.3% 2% -18.9%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.7%
20% -35.9% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage457d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $59 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $28 −$2 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $4 −$1 -25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 29 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 27 $9 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the n Apr 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t Apr 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 18–25? Apr 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 03 $14 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +3%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $8 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $26 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $8 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $18 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $8 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $21 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $25 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records