Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34c9…fa1f crypto 1103 markets active 5d ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$125 (-8%) realized −$123 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%668W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$22
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$71
other 1% +$3
world 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -9.7% -18.3% 67% 57% -20.5%
≤30d 663 -5.2% -14.3% 63% 55% -11.1%
≤90d 1105 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 55% -13.1%
all 1105 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 55% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 55% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 47% -21.4%
15% -31.1% 30% -29.0%
20% -37.9% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses668 / 437
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1105 / 1103
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 429 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 6-12? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -572%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +140%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 3500 history records