Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:00:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34c6…98b6 other 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$41
sports 23% −$18
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$9
economics 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage137d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $563 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $373 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $720 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $125 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $706 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $557 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $864 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $298 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $163 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $491 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $406 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $417 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $629 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $221 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 30 $118 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $284 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $182 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 29 $149 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $443 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $29 1m
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 1h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 6h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 7h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 9h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 10h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 12h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 13h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 15h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 16h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 24h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 26h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 40h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 42h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.44 · official $30.44 (match) · 1407 history records