Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x34c5…5b3f other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$155 (+4%) realized +$170 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1,085now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$189
14 days+$189
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$27
other 33% +$174
crypto 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +61.9% +46.5% 67% 67% +46.7%
≤30d 4 +44.9% +31.1% 50% 50% -0.7%
≤90d 7 +10.0% -0.5% 43% 43% -6.3%
all 7 +10.0% -0.5% 43% 43% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 43% -6.3%
10% -10.0% 43% -15.2%
15% -18.7% 43% -23.4%
20% -26.7% 29% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$115 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,085
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)7 / 20
History coverage76d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $997 −$62 -6%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 27 $750 −$347 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 14 $1,050 +$382 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 56m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 56m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 59m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $81 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $81 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 75¢ $98 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 76¢ $101 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $81 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 42h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 32¢ $935 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $483 19d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 29¢ $514 20d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of SELL Yes 3¢ $26 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of BUY Yes 17¢ $150 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of SELL Yes 28¢ $376 70d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of BUY Yes 33¢ $300 70d
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of BUY Yes 70¢ $300 71d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 SELL Yes 99¢ $1,432 71d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 BUY Yes 71¢ $800 73d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 BUY Yes 78¢ $250 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,085.15 · official $1,085.15 (match) · 31 history records