Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:06:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x34c4…9c93
sports · 133 markets active 15h ago
2.0score
+$1,605 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,610 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$246
Realized+$1,610
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses79 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)127 / 133
History coverage103d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 6 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $153 $153 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $21 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 84¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $135 −$44 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $158 −$6 -4%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 11 $67 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 −$11 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $77 −$5 -6%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $418 −$28 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $297 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? May 25 $11 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 23 $398 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 16? May 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on May 16? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 15 $7 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 10 $30 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 10 $203 +$27 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 10 $299 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $160 +$40 +25%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 26 $10 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 26 $79 +$20 +26%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16? Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 2? Apr 17 $136 −$28 -21%
Hawks vs. Pistons Apr 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Raptors vs. Bulls Apr 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nets Apr 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 17 $275 −$275 -100%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? Apr 15 $553 +$1 +0%
New Mexico Lobos vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Apr 14 $9 −$9 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Apr 04 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of March 30 2026? Apr 02 $39 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $396 +$33 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Apr 01 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 30? Mar 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 30? Mar 30 $49 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% +$1,762
finance 6% +$2
other 5% −$44
crypto 5% −$1
world 4% −$8
politics 3% −$9
weather 3% −$97
tech 1% $0
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? SELL No 50¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? SELL No 40¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 40¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 50¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 50¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 46¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 44¢ $14 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 45¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 45¢ $18 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 45¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 45¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 45¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 45¢ $12 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 36¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 46¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -7.9% -16.7% 8% 0% -16.7%
≤30d 21 -9.4% -18.0% 33% 0% -15.6%
≤90d 75 -9.1% -17.7% 57% 9% -11.4%
all 127 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 17% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 17% -2.9%
10% -22.4% 9% -12.2%
15% -29.9% 6% -20.7%
20% -36.7% 5% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.17 · official $246.17 (match) · 572 history records