Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:49:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x34c2…cc24
crypto · 28 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$16 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage38d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 2 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$12
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +206%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 01 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$7 +70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $17 +$12 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 28 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 23 $3 +$2 +63%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 07 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 07 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 06 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 06 $7 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 06 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 05 $1 +$2 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$35
crypto 33% +$6
sports 13% +$20
politics 4% −$6
finance 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL Yes 37¢ $6 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 12d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 12d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 20d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 20d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 20d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 22d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 36d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 36d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY Yes 40¢ $7 36d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 36d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +94.1% +75.6% 67% 67% +24.9%
≤30d 16 +7.7% -2.6% 50% 50% -23.5%
≤90d 26 +6.8% -3.4% 50% 50% -16.5%
all 26 +6.8% -3.4% 50% 50% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 50% -16.5%
10% -12.7% 46% -24.5%
15% -21.1% 46% -31.8%
20% -28.8% 38% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.01 · official $46.01 (match) · 99 history records