Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34c1…8454 weather 1261 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$62 (+0%) realized +$179 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate52%379W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day88.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$2,538
politics 25% −$26
weather 16% −$417
sports 9% +$77
culture 4% −$218
tech 3% −$50
economics 3% −$17
world 3% −$23
finance 2% +$3
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -12.5% -20.8% 68% 20% -18.6%
≤30d 732 -13.3% -21.5% 52% 22% -42.5%
≤90d 732 -13.3% -21.5% 52% 22% -42.5%
all 732 -13.3% -21.5% 52% 22% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 22% -42.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 18% -48.0%
15% -35.9% 16% -53.1%
20% -42.2% 13% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,249
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses379 / 353
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions293
Markets (closed)732 / 1261
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day88.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 293 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 11¢ 98¢ $18 $156 +$139 (+786%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 17¢ 66¢ $7 $27 +$20 (+299%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? No 84¢ 99¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? No 90¢ 98¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in June? No 100¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? No 93¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? No 76¢ 90¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No 88¢ 93¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? No 96¢ 92¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No 80¢ 92¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No 95¢ 89¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? No 45¢ 74¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+66%)
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026? No 65¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Amanda Septimo be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yuh-Line Niou be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Santiago Palomino be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tiffany Rodgers be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexa Avilés be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on June 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX raise at least $120B in its IPO? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX raise less than $40B in its IPO? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 82°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $2 +$27 +1290%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +60%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $86 +$37 +42%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $12 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30? BUY No 92¢ $23 2h
Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30? BUY No 91¢ $30 2h
Will Claude Code Commits be between 500.0k and 550.0k on June 30? BUY No 91¢ $30 2h
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 2h
Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 2h
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? BUY No 62¢ $21 2h
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $17 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 27¢ $28 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 93¢ $9 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 87¢ $9 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 98¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 69¢ $7 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 62¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 87¢ $9 7h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY No 7¢ $2 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY No 70¢ $80 10h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $3 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY No 66¢ $7 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY No 100¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 94¢ $11 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY No 97¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY No 88¢ $11 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,248.74 · official $1,247.66 (match) · 3500 history records