Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34c0…b596 weather 102 markets active 4h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%6W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$1
other 4% −$11
culture 2% +$1
politics 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.0% -24.0% 17% 0% -22.5%
≤30d 31 -6.2% -15.1% 10% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 101 -3.8% -13.0% 6% 0% -11.0%
all 101 -3.8% -13.0% 6% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -11.0%
10% -21.3% 0% -19.5%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses6 / 95
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage48d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? No 98¢ 96¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 29? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 74°F or higher on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's video get 70 million or more views on week 1? May 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 17? May 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 16? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 15? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 15? May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 14? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 13? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 13? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 13? May 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 12? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 13? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 12? May 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 12? May 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 12? May 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 11? May 12 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $14 41h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 99¢ $15 45h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 95¢ $14 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 92¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $12 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? BUY Yes $0 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $14 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $12 9d
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election BUY No 92¢ $9 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $13 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 7? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 6? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 6? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 6? BUY Yes $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.00 · official $35.00 (match) · 332 history records