Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x34bb…db52
weather · 250 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$107 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$108 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses100 / 137
Open positions13
Markets (closed)237 / 250
History coverage44d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 13 History 237 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$55
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? No 55¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? No 53¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? No 55¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? No 55¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? No 52¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? No 52¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? No 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? No 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? No 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? No 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? No 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? No 55¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? No 55¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? No 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? No 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? No 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? No 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? No 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? No 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? No 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? No 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? No 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? No 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$106
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 54¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 51¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 53¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 3¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 54¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 20¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 54¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 20¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? BUY No 52¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 50¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 55¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 55¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 54¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? SELL No 90¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 37% -14.9%
≤30d 116 -17.1% -25.0% 39% 34% -23.7%
≤90d 237 -16.3% -24.2% 42% 36% -22.8%
all 237 -16.3% -24.2% 42% 36% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 36% -22.8%
10% -31.5% 30% -30.2%
15% -38.1% 22% -36.9%
20% -44.2% 15% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.74 · official $13.75 (match) · 853 history records