Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34bb…f3e4 sports 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-1%) realized +$192 · open −$257
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%132W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$322
14 days+$223
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$180
sports 33% +$7
world 8% +$139
politics 7% −$57
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +26.2% +14.2% 52% 48% +16.8%
≤30d 249 +1.5% -8.1% 49% 44% -6.8%
≤90d 267 +3.6% -6.2% 49% 45% -6.9%
all 267 +3.6% -6.2% 49% 45% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 45% -6.9%
10% -15.2% 42% -15.8%
15% -23.4% 38% -24.0%
20% -30.9% 34% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,811
Realized+$192
Unrealized−$257
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses132 / 135
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions21
Markets (closed)267 / 294
History coverage37d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 30¢ 26¢ $1,464 $1,259 −$206 (-14%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 62¢ $169 $133 −$36 (-21%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 57¢ $110 $96 −$14 (-12%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 56¢ 61¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $24 −$6 (-18%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 90¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 37¢ 38¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 37¢ 37¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 35¢ 44¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 38¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $2 +$18 +874%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $20 +$10 +49%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $31 +$46 +152%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$46 +228%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +37%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 +$15 +30%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$44 +217%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $10 +$33 +325%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $162 +$20 +12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $15 +$21 +136%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $91 +$21 +23%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +204%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $91 +$31 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 10¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 73¢ $30 1h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 30¢ $20 31h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $20 31h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 35¢ $10 31h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $10 31h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 37¢ $15 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 32h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 37¢ $20 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 32h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 32h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 32h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Scotland win BUY $5 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 32h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 32h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $10 32h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $10 32h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $5 32h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 32h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $10 32h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 81¢ $35 32h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $28 32h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 58¢ $13 32h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $66 32h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo $3 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 42¢ $20 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,811.07 · official $1,811.07 (match) · 739 history records