Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x34b8…eff8 sports 22 markets active 3h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$45 (+53%) realized +$11 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$19
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$6
sports 26% +$22
other 25% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +104.2% +84.8% 100% 100% +84.8%
≤30d 10 +53.5% +38.9% 60% 50% +19.7%
≤90d 10 +53.5% +38.9% 60% 50% +19.7%
all 10 +53.5% +38.9% 60% 50% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.9% 50% +19.7%
10% +25.6% 50% +8.2%
15% +13.5% 50% -2.2%
20% +2.3% 50% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 22
History coverage27d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ $3 $30 +$27 (+884%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Flamengo win Copa Libertadores? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +104%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$5 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$11 +360%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 -6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 12¢ $2 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY $2 3h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- BUY $2 3h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end BUY $2 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 19¢ $3 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia end BUY $2 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 16¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $8 7d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $3 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $0 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $14 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $3 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 BUY 18¢ $5 8d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $3 22d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $3 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $5 22d
Will Flamengo win Copa Libertadores? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down $5 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.57 · official $65.57 · 47 history records