Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
34 0x34b8…81af sports 309 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,057 (-2%) realized −$8,064 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%170W / 136L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,069per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1,375est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 185d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$6,650
other 42% −$13,203
world 3% +$1,008
crypto 0% −$996
culture 0% +$263
economics 0% −$856
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -9.2% -17.8% 44% 44% -7.4%
≤30d 178 -14.3% -22.4% 58% 51% -16.8%
≤90d 290 -11.0% -19.5% 56% 49% -13.6%
all 306 -11.2% -19.7% 56% 50% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 50% -14.3%
10% -27.4% 38% -22.5%
15% -34.4% 29% -30.0%
20% -40.8% 19% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$331 vs −$564 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized−$8,064
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses170 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$1,375
Open positions3
Markets (closed)306 / 309
History coverage185d
Avg bet$1,069
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ 58¢ $300 $331 +$31 (+10%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 48¢ 60¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $211 −$200 -95%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $263 +$157 +60%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $629 +$228 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $577 +$232 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $425 +$179 +42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $421 −$49 -12%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $105 +$70 +66%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $263 −$250 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $292 −$251 -86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $158 −$150 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +92%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $203 −$28 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$72 +71%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $106 +$251 +236%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $211 −$182 -86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $524 +$152 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$173 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $329 +$395 +120%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $106 +$147 +138%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $577 +$209 +36%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $156 +$104 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $64 +$206 +323%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $152 +$128 +84%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $450 +$115 +26%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $158 −$150 -95%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $328 +$82 +25%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $158 +$127 +80%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $428 +$58 +14%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $106 −$91 -86%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $211 −$168 -80%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $152 −$150 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $663 +$169 +26%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $462 +$105 +23%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $126 −$47 -38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $387 −$387 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $138 +$62 +45%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $525 +$191 +36%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $504 +$200 +40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $370 +$128 +35%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $106 +$227 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $316 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 48¢ $106 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $211 15h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $106 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $421 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $53 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $211 34h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $106 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $629 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $577 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $425 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $372 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $421 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 98¢ $175 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $263 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $42 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $105 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $292 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $158 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $195 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $101 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $175 3d
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $203 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $174 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.34 · official $443.35 · 602 history records