Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34b6…5e52 crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$664 (-5%) realized −$664 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%41W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days−$602
14 days−$2,375
30 days−$1,850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,128
other 1% −$127
sports 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -32.0% -38.5% 33% 26% -27.6%
≤30d 122 -40.3% -46.0% 29% 25% -25.4%
≤90d 147 -41.0% -46.6% 28% 25% -26.0%
all 147 -41.0% -46.6% 28% 25% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.6% 25% -26.0%
10% -51.7% 24% -33.1%
15% -56.4% 20% -39.5%
20% -60.6% 17% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$60 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$664
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses41 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage38d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (99 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$26 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $74 −$25 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$4 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $23 +$26 +113%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $228 −$218 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $228 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $154 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $73 +$70 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$42 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $248 −$240 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $69 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $165 +$145 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$97 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $48 −$27 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $206 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $162 −$55 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$34 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $181 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $70 −$17 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$29 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$64 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $164 +$82 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $109 +$23 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $93 +$54 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$35 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $127 −$122 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 07 $49 +$78 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 07 $93 −$30 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $470 −$453 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $420 +$123 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 07 $104 −$37 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 07 $74 −$70 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $45 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $42 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $28 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $14 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $62 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 77¢ $12 5h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 5h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 70¢ $18 5h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 588 history records