Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
34 0x34b5…e5e2 world 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$566 (-76%) realized −$566 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$552
world 25% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 0% -78.8%
≤90d 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 0% -78.8%
all 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 0% -78.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.6% 0% -78.8%
10% -53.5% 0% -80.9%
15% -58.0% 0% -82.7%
20% -62.1% 0% -84.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$288 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$566
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage10d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? Jun 22 $123 +$10 +8%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $65 −$24 -37%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 12 $553 −$552 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records