Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34b2…433c sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$414 (-20%) realized −$350 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day60.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$457
other 6% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -21.8% -29.2% 46% 34% -26.4%
≤30d 41 -21.8% -29.2% 46% 34% -26.4%
≤90d 41 -21.8% -29.2% 46% 34% -26.4%
all 41 -21.8% -29.2% 46% 34% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 34% -26.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 20% -33.5%
15% -42.2% 15% -39.9%
20% -47.8% 10% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$32 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$350
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day60.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Sharks 59¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Walczaki 65¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $30 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 25 $8 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $119 −$30 -25%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $58 −$57 -98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $81 +$8 +10%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $49 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $61 +$58 +96%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $33 +$14 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $78 +$6 +7%
Valorant: Dplus vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 25 $61 +$17 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $50 +$11 +22%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou Jun 25 $104 −$43 -42%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $50 −$50 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$38 +75%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 −$25 -81%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 25 $118 −$80 -68%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 25 $161 −$90 -56%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -56%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 25 $50 +$11 +22%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $26 +$83 +326%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $60 +$15 +26%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $30 +$32 +105%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $34 −$4 -12%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $31 +$4 +12%
Valorant: ARETE vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $26 −$21 -83%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $51 +$4 +8%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Honvéd - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $46 −$41 -90%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $50 −$5 -9%
Honor of Kings: TOP Esports Armor vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 24 $50 −$6 -12%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 58¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 61¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 76¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea BUY OlyBet SB 18¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W SELL largadosypelados 100¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY largadosypelados 89¢ $8 4h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 65¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 50¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 67¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR Academy 47¢ $58 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 55¢ $57 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 84¢ $88 6h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 85¢ $88 6h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 62¢ $49 6h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 77¢ $81 6h
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winner BUY DEPO 33¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL AM Gaming 100¢ $50 7h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY AM Gaming 20¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL Infinite 100¢ $47 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Sashi Esport 92¢ $69 8h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Infinite 69¢ $33 9h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 67¢ $51 9h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $83 9h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 93¢ $78 9h
Valorant: Dplus vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL Dplus 100¢ $78 9h
Valorant: Dplus vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 78¢ $61 11h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner SELL Rune Eaters 100¢ $61 12h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou BUY GAMEPOINT 44¢ $44 13h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou SELL The Huns Esports 59¢ $44 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 106 history records