Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34b2…735e other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$51
other 32% −$18
crypto 14% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +12.2% +1.5% 46% 42% -21.6%
≤30d 26 +12.2% +1.5% 46% 42% -21.6%
≤90d 26 +12.2% +1.5% 46% 42% -21.6%
all 26 +12.2% +1.5% 46% 42% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.5% 42% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 38% -29.1%
15% -17.0% 35% -35.9%
20% -25.2% 27% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-3.5) Iraq 66¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 +$10 +325%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $21 +$1 +6%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $99 +$16 +16%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $23 +$17 +74%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $40 +$19 +48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $18 +$44 +238%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$12 +120%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 +$41 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $38 +$37 +98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 +$5 +23%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 68¢ $114 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 28¢ $40 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 58¢ $99 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 67¢ $40 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $12 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $6 27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $46 27h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 92¢ $22 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 28h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.40 · official $135.40 (match) · 57 history records