Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34b0…d620 other 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,315 (+8%) realized +$12,294 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate71%119W / 48L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$830per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$4,872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$272
7 days+$645
14 days+$317
30 days+$825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$11,364
tech 29% +$109
sports 18% +$491
finance 2% +$13
world 2% +$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 33% +4.4%
≤30d 82 -18.4% -26.2% 66% 22% -7.9%
≤90d 167 -0.9% -10.3% 71% 25% -1.5%
all 167 -0.9% -10.3% 71% 25% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 25% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 15% -10.9%
15% -26.7% 13% -19.5%
20% -33.9% 9% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$649) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$95 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$4,872
Realized+$12,294
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses119 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions10
Markets (closed)167 / 177
History coverage59d
Avg bet$830
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,756 $3,754 −$2 (-0%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 35¢ 35¢ $502 $499 −$3 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $441 $439 −$3 (-1%)
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Yes 51¢ 98¢ $27 $51 +$25 (+92%)
Will SpaceX have the highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $46 $49 +$4 (+8%)
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Stripe have the highest private market valuation on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation on June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $350 +$135 +39%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $110 +$137 +124%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $212 +$88 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $304 +$1 +0%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $561 +$49 +9%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $255 +$245 +96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $279 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $550 +$65 +12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $13 −$12 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $83 +$117 +140%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $900 +$100 +11%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $170 −$156 -92%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $37 +$2 +5%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $164 +$15 +9%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T? Jun 15 $59 +$2 +3%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 14 $202 +$3 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$49 +49%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $48 +$2 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 12 $498 +$46 +9%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $183 +$7 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $148 +$2 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $592 +$8 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $2,527 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $4,249 +$4 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $240 +$10 +4%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $998 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $10,989 +$11 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $4,271 −$13 -0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $9,473 +$8 +0%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $47 +$3 +6%
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $160 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -67%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $5,267 +$56 +1%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 10 $4,960 +$15 +0%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close Jun 10 $351 −$351 -100%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $825M and $900M at mark Jun 10 $27 +$6 +24%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals not IPO before August 2026? Jun 09 $134 +$1 +1%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $600M and $675M at mark Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $3,752 38m
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $443 2h
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 97¢ $187 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 97¢ $298 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $350 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 61¢ $305 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $212 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 52¢ $57 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 52¢ $73 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 41¢ $40 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 41¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $174 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 56¢ $255 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 56¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 51¢ $236 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 51¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 51¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $279 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 88¢ $88 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 90¢ $333 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 90¢ $117 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 80¢ $12 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $13 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $26 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 3d
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? SELL Yes $7 4d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $20 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $83 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,871.92 · official $4,871.92 (match) · 1267 history records