Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
34 0x34af…2bca sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$227 (-68%) realized −$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$132
other 47% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-52.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -68.1% -71.1% 0% 0% -80.2%
≤30d 3 -68.1% -71.1% 0% 0% -80.2%
≤90d 5 -47.5% -52.5% 20% 20% -74.3%
all 5 -47.5% -52.5% 20% 20% -74.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.5% 20% -74.3%
10% -57.0% 20% -76.7%
15% -61.2% 20% -79.0%
20% -65.0% 20% -81.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$60 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage52d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $115 −$114 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $95 −$94 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $61 −$3 -4%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $31 −$31 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $19 +$13 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 34¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $115 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $95 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $59 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 3d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 54¢ $31 51d
Knicks vs. Hawks SELL Knicks 100¢ $32 51d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 59¢ $19 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.20 · official $11.40 · 8 history records