Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
34 0x34af…3bbf crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$812 (+4%) realized +$1,771 · open −$959
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 62L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,504
7 days+$2,121
14 days+$172
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$610
sports 26% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +9.5% -0.9% 38% 38% +15.2%
≤30d 94 -3.7% -12.9% 34% 33% -5.8%
≤90d 94 -3.7% -12.9% 34% 33% -5.8%
all 94 -3.7% -12.9% 34% 33% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 33% -5.8%
10% -21.2% 31% -14.8%
15% -28.8% 29% -23.1%
20% -35.8% 26% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$122 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1,771
Unrealized−$959
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage12d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs KOLESIE 19¢ 0¢ $962 $3 −$959 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $796 −$764 -96%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$31 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $951 +$2,293 +241%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $934 +$206 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$106 +102%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $144 −$135 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $148 +$153 +103%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $134 −$81 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$165 +80%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $445 +$1,530 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $499 −$55 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,076 −$392 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $184 +$313 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $165 −$161 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $97 +$54 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $143 −$139 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$60 +377%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$7 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $71 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$24 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$48 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $93 +$24 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $81 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $94 −$91 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $227 −$16 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $371 −$350 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $228 −$177 -78%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $625 −$543 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $118 −$113 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $724 −$701 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1,498 −$1,435 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $508 +$1,258 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$44 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $135 +$57 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $216 +$255 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$37 +351%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $234 −$220 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $403 −$127 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY KOLESIE 19¢ $985 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $796 35h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 40h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $71 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $3,243 46h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 75¢ $714 46h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $426 47h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 43¢ $426 47h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 50¢ $508 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $130 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $53 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $213 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 36¢ $301 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $81 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL HyperSpirit 11¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $372 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 27¢ $134 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 16¢ $148 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $53 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $158 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $107 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $105 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $105 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $316 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,975 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $445 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.54 · official $2.54 (match) · 193 history records