Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34ac…3f65 crypto 156 markets active 6d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%77W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$7
sports 1% +$2
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.3% -17.1% 42% 42% -29.5%
≤30d 156 -2.9% -12.2% 49% 46% -10.9%
≤90d 156 -2.9% -12.2% 49% 46% -10.9%
all 156 -2.9% -12.2% 49% 46% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 46% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 45% -19.4%
15% -28.2% 38% -27.2%
20% -35.3% 35% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses77 / 79
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9PM ET Jun 06 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Thailand vs. Kuwait end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 +$5 +273%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Georgia vs. Bahrain end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$7 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$6 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$5 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$7 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 356 history records