Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34a9…9e88 other 276 markets active 2h ago coverage 367d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18,117 (-11%) realized −$18,261 · open +$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%113W / 152L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$603per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$3,033now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,280
7 days+$940
14 days+$1,585
30 days+$1,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$986
other 31% −$5,625
politics 15% −$8,670
tech 12% −$3,598
sports 3% −$528
crypto 3% +$448
economics 3% +$728
culture 1% −$653
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +19.0% +7.6% 24% 24% +15.3%
≤30d 80 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 32% -5.1%
≤90d 80 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 32% -5.1%
all 265 +1.4% -8.3% 43% 32% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 32% -20.1%
10% -17.1% 25% -27.8%
15% -25.1% 17% -34.7%
20% -32.4% 15% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$663) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$349 vs −$387 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

367d coverage
Net worth$3,033
Realized−$18,261
Unrealized+$144
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses113 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions11
Markets (closed)265 / 276
History coverage367d
Avg bet$603
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 92¢ $259 $661 +$402 (+155%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $680 $628 −$51 (-8%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $404 $414 +$10 (+2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $350 $366 +$16 (+5%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $355 $320 −$35 (-10%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $311 $305 −$6 (-2%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $200 $115 −$86 (-43%)
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $136 $97 −$39 (-29%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $88 $93 +$5 (+5%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? Yes 42¢ 13¢ $105 $33 −$72 (-69%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $140 −$140 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $220 +$1,730 +785%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $180 −$175 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $209 −$204 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $174 −$89 -51%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $231 −$225 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $213 +$1,383 +650%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $185 −$180 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $171 +$182 +106%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $302 +$98 +32%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $59 −$57 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $584 −$499 -85%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $487 −$483 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$46 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$55 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $271 −$192 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $663 −$250 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $419 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $314 +$83 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +72%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $194 +$106 +54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $224 +$76 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $67 +$111 +165%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $179 +$1,296 +724%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 10 $81 −$79 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 10 $327 −$221 -68%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 05 $83 +$28 +34%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 05 $73 +$23 +31%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $228 +$873 +382%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 04 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $312 −$300 -96%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 03 $413 −$251 -61%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 03 $79 +$10 +12%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $1,877 −$1,831 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 03 $340 −$13 -4%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $184 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $211 −$10 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $261 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $285 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $261 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $118 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $69 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 10h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $75 21h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $153 22h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $247 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $180 25h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $220 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $209 25h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 9¢ $85 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $231 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,032.66 · official $3,016.91 (match) · 3027 history records