Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34a9…3b89 crypto 328 markets active 0h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$912 (-2%) realized −$690 · open −$222
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%171W / 156L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$213
7 days−$661
14 days−$494
30 days−$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$1,544
other 5% +$52
tech 4% −$158
politics 2% +$21
sports 1% −$140
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -4.8% -13.8% 61% 54% -13.1%
≤30d 263 -2.7% -12.0% 57% 52% -10.3%
≤90d 285 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 49% -12.2%
all 327 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 45% -12.5%
10% -21.2% 39% -20.8%
15% -28.8% 32% -28.5%
20% -35.8% 24% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$89 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$690
Unrealized−$222
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses171 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)327 / 328
History coverage589d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 51¢ 6¢ $255 $32 −$222 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $129 +$168 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $331 −$325 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $240 +$92 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $274 −$274 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $303 +$297 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $344 −$344 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $369 +$411 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $281 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $188 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $217 +$179 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $333 +$162 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $180 +$117 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $211 +$85 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $84 +$116 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $152 +$148 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$275 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $341 −$341 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $255 +$145 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $168 +$132 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $181 +$59 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $897 +$103 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $481 −$476 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$24 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $119 +$40 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $75 −$61 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $256 +$32 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $237 +$49 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $124 +$101 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $269 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $66 +$18 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $204 +$144 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $600 +$42 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $147 +$150 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $220 +$35 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $61 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $58 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $161 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.50 · official $327.48 · 2820 history records